In a surprising turn of events, former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter has fallen six points in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a Berkeley Institute of Government Studies (IGS) poll released Friday. The new data shows Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco taking the lead — a rare development in a state long dominated by Democrats.
Porter, who had maintained her status as the frontrunner since August, dropped from 17 percent to 11 percent, while Bianco climbed from 10 percent to 13 percent. The poll also featured six other Democrats, though none managed to break past 3 percent support, with the exceptions of former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Becerra placed third at 8 percent, down one point from August, followed by Republican Steve Hilton, who gained two points to also reach 8 percent. Meanwhile, 5 percent of respondents said they would support another candidate, and a significant 44 percent remained undecided — a reminder that the race is still in its early stages.
When it comes to favorability, Bianco appears to have room to grow: 23 percent of voters view him favorably, 26 percent unfavorably, and 51 percent said they have no opinion. Porter’s numbers are slightly more polarized — 26 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable, and 41 percent expressing no opinion.
In an interview with the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF), Bianco positioned himself as a law-and-order candidate ready to clean up Sacramento. “California needs a sheriff,” he said, criticizing Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom for “wasting taxpayer dollars.”
“Sacramento is home to more crime than any other city due to Gavin Newsom and his enablers stealing from Californians,” Bianco told DCNF. “They are spending billions to fund government programs for illegal immigrants, fund political power grabs, building a new temple to government with little to no oversight. Meanwhile, there’s no money for first responders, families trying to rebuild their lives, or tax relief for working Californians,” he continued. “Californians need a sheriff as their next governor to restore sanity in Sacramento.”
The polling dip comes amid a wave of negative headlines for Porter, including viral moments that have fueled questions about her temperament. On October 7, an interview with CBS News California’s Julie Watts went viral after Porter abruptly ended the conversation when asked how she planned to reach the 40 percent of voters who supported former President Donald Trump. Porter dismissed the need for Trump voters to win and, after a brief back-and-forth, cut the interview short, saying she was no longer having a “pleasant, positive conversation.”
The controversy deepened a day later when Politico resurfaced a 2021 video of Porter shouting at a staffer during an online meeting with then–Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, yelling, “Get out of my f***ing shot.”
Porter’s campaign did not respond to DCNF’s request for comment.
The IGS poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from October 20–27, surveying 8,141 registered California voters. Invitations were distributed via email and text to randomly selected voters across the state. The poll carries a margin of error of ±2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
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